Ryan₁ argues that despite new approaches and development aides, the issues of time consuming and difficult systems development will not disappear. He cites the wide variety of user interfaces, the continuing need to understand roles, the lack of an underlying theory in system development and the continual need for significant testing as the bases for his claim.
 

Do you agree with Ryan's contentions? For those of you who have been in system development for a decade or more, what evidence, if any, have you seen of improvement in the system development process?

The table below provides a viewpoint on the progression of systems and systems development since the earliest days of computing.
 

Era	System Development Characteristics	Keys for Developers
Invisible Computing  2005-2015	Substitution Concept  Everybody is a Customer	For the customer Instant Gratification isn't fast enough  Use the best, not the rest  Visual Programming  Human Factors bigger than ever  Document, Document, Document
Ubiquitous Internet Transport Systems  1995-2005	Multi Server  Multiple Customers Everywhere	Stick to your business  Re-learn on a regular basis  Tight Control still needed
Widespread Desktop Level Client Server  1985-1995	Single Server Concept  Strong Productivity  Specialization within the system    Development Profession  The Personal more savvy customer  LOC in hundreds of thousands	Modularize and Capitalize  Partner w/ Customer  Hire good people
Division level & specialized  minicomputer applications  1975-1985	Single Processor  Adoption of Packaged Software  3rd Generation Languages  LOC in tens of thousands  The Outside Customer	Structure  Project Management  Limit Mix and Match Code
Large Scale enterprise wide mainframe based  1965-1975	Single processor  Internal Custom built applications  Low Level Coding  Sequential Processing  LOC in thousands  Lack of Documentation  The Inside Customer	Programming Efficiency  Very Tight Control

 
To say that we have made no progress in systems development is frankly absurd. A simple comparison of any 1st generation system against a current generation system is primae facie evidence that current systems are considerably more complex, provide an order of magnitude improvement in the interface, and certainly accomplish a significantly expanded range of tasks. While it is obvious that a far greater number of people are employed in the computing arena, the productivity of programmers evidenced by almost any measure has significantly improved as well.

This is most likely attributable to a Silicon Valley phrase - "eating your own dog food."  In other words, system developers tend to employ those tools which they are producing - programs. Programmers and system analysts have a natural inclination (as Myers Briggs INTJs) to improve their development processes. And those programs or other processes are the embodiment of automated processes to shorten, and make more effective the development process. Important questions now arise. 1) Have these improvements been linear or are they increasing in nature, and 2) will this trend continue into the following generations of computing.

The Next Trend - Invisible Computing

Almost certainly the next "trend" in the computer age will be invisible computing. Invisible computing will be most readily signified by lower and lower prices for the computing machine until it becomes an "appliance." This era will concurrently be identified by the disappearance of the physical machine - as we now know it. Additionally the applications - as we now know them - will also disappear.

The Change in Hardware

We now typically associate the physical computing machine with screens, circuit cards, keyboards and mice. But within the next twenty years these artifacts will disappear. Screens will be replaced by images directed from electronic eyeglasses onto our retinas, and by large wall sized flat, yet 3D, panel displays. Computer chips will become pin-head sized micro circuits and our interface with the machine will be driven by commands from our voices, facial expressions, and hand movements. They will become more and more specialized, but able to communicate through common protocols.

The Change in Software

We also typically associate the computer with applications such as word processing, data base processing and spreadsheets.
The reader should be mindful that the development of these applications stems from the industrial age. Before computers, written communications were transferred through pieces of paper called memoranda or via formal salutation type letters. In the information era, this paradigm was transferred to e-mail and word processing. In the industrial era, basic data were kept on file cards. In the information age, these file cards were placed into the computer in the form of databases. Also in the industrial era recorded numbers were stored on green columnar pads. In the information age these rows and columns are known as spreadsheets.

But the concept of moving our communication, storage and computation into e-mail, databases, and spreadsheets has only been transitional. Already the communication concept is being surpassed by intelligent agents,  storage through object and knowledge base schemas, and spreadsheets through packaged add-ins, system dynamics and real time processing mechanisms such as dynamic data exchange.
 

1. Ryan, H.W. Information Systems Management, Winter 1993. Vol 10 Issue 1. p 62-4.

1. Full Research Papers and Compiled Organizational Analysis due.